Hazard & Vulnerability Assessment

Our work in the area of weather-related hazard assessment was brought about by potential risks to utilities' gas portfolios posed by weather extremes (i.e., low temperatures). We performed a risk assessment for long-term peak and seasonal gas load forecasts for the New York Gas Group (NYGAS), to enable its member utilities to examine opportunities for as portfolio optimization while maintaining the value and availability of services to customers. To help meet this objective, our staff developed a flexible model to compute various types of statistics from historical temperature data for the heating season. The temperature data were collected from several sources, such as the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and the Northeast Regional Climate Center, for over 200 National Weather Service and cooperative sites in New York State. In some cases site-specific data records extended over 100 years. We evaluated all sites for data completeness and best representation for different utility service territories throughout the state. GEOMET used the collected data to perform long-term and short-term trend analysis, and to evaluate and optimize peak load criteria used by the eleven NYGAS members. The model developed for this effort allows a choice of base temperature for calculating heating-degree days (HDDs). Summary statistics can be calculated based on seasonal/monthly totals as well as peak days and strings of cold weather. The user can choose the historical period over which the statistics are to be calculated, with the restriction that it must be a contiguous period.

GEOMET recently supported the State of Maryland Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) by identifying and assessing the potential risks to its jurisdictions posed by weather-related, other natural and man-made hazards. This Statewide hazard analysis was accomplished through systematic collection, assembly, analysis and presentation of relevant information gathered from central repositories (i.e., government agencies such as FEMA, National Climatic Data Center, and U.S. Department of Transportation) and local information sources.

The project was intended to provide MEMA with sufficient information to understand (1) the hazards for which numerous Maryland jurisdictions share significant risk, (2) the jurisdictions facing the largest number of hazards with significant risks, and (3) the specific locales that appear to be most vulnerable to certain types of hazards. Data were collected primarily from centralized data sources, including those accessible through the Internet, and every effort was made to locate electronic databases. As part of the overall effort, our staff visited with each jurisdiction in the State to obtain their input and perspective on local hazards. An important facet of the project was proper compilation and analysis of the collected information, with presentation in a unified format that could be readily understood and followed by different audiences. Although the project focus was on the hazard asessment, we also provided an initial basis for vulnerability assessment by developing a series of jurisdictional maps to delineate major zones of impact for hazards such as flooding. For some other hazards, such as dams or tornado touchdowns, available information was stored in the form of discrete sites where such resources are located or where such events have occurred.

Vulnerability assessment is the primary area of focus for an ongoing project whereby GEOMET staff are supporting the Cecil County (Maryland) Department of Emergency Services (CCDES) in development of a hazard mitigation plan specific to that locality. The plan is to meet certain criteria specified by FEMA (e.g., per 44 CFR Parts 201 and 206) and MEMA. The assessment is being accomplished primarily through spatial analysis efforts using GIS software (ArcView). For example, for areas with a significant likelihood of flooding (per Q3 data), unimproved and improved property values are being tabulated across individual land parcels, taking advantage of information available from Maryland's Property View database; a similar approach is being taken for areas potentially affected by storm surge or by dam breaches (i.e., inundation areas).

Spatial patterns also are being examined for other weather-related hazards such as severe storms and drought, and for man-made hazards such as hazardous materials and terrorist acts.Critical facilities covered in the assessment include emergency shelters, medical and daycare facilities, economic and communication centers, assets of historical/cultural value, and sensitive natural resources. Repetitive loss properties are receiving special attention in the assessment.